Off-plan property or fixed income: compare the same money
The same money, on the same dates, in the property and in CDI, Tesouro, savings and REITs.
For now, Santa Catarina cities only: the math uses FipeZAP and Santa Catarina registry fees. For Rio de Janeiro, use the ITBI calculator.
Result
To break even with the CDI in this scenario, the property needs to appreciate 7.41% a year. The FipeZAP reference for Itapema over the last 12 months was 4.37%.
| Option | Gross | Tax | Costs | Net | Net gain | Annual IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off-plan property | R$1,671,967.44 | R$5,630.33 | R$0.00 | R$1,666,337.10 | R$131,931.49 | 3.52% |
| CDI | R$1,941,682.88 | R$61,091.59 | R$0.00 | R$1,880,591.29 | R$346,185.68 | 8.63% |
| Tesouro Selic | R$1,944,117.47 | R$61,456.78 | R$9,679.63 | R$1,872,981.07 | R$338,575.45 | 8.46% |
| Tesouro IPCA+ | R$2,004,258.00 | R$70,477.86 | R$10,062.20 | R$1,923,717.94 | R$389,312.33 | 9.63% |
| Savings account (poupança) | R$1,865,893.89 | R$0.00 | R$0.00 | R$1,865,893.89 | R$331,488.28 | 8.29% |
| Brazilian REITs (IFIX) | R$1,798,530.91 | R$0.00 | R$0.00 | R$1,798,530.91 | R$264,125.30 | 6.70% |
See the month-by-month payments and the property tax calculation
| Month | Payment |
|---|---|
| 0 | R$20,000.00 |
| 1 | R$20,000.00 |
| 1 | R$4,021.39 |
| 2 | R$20,000.00 |
| 2 | R$4,042.90 |
| 3 | R$20,000.00 |
| 3 | R$4,064.52 |
| 4 | R$4,086.26 |
| 5 | R$4,108.11 |
| 6 | R$4,130.08 |
| 7 | R$4,152.17 |
| 8 | R$4,174.38 |
| 9 | R$4,196.71 |
| 10 | R$4,219.15 |
| 11 | R$4,241.71 |
| 12 | R$4,264.40 |
| 12 | R$63,966.00 |
| 13 | R$4,287.21 |
| 14 | R$4,310.14 |
| 15 | R$4,333.19 |
| 16 | R$4,356.36 |
| 17 | R$4,379.66 |
| 18 | R$4,403.08 |
| 19 | R$4,426.63 |
| 20 | R$4,450.31 |
| 21 | R$4,474.11 |
| 22 | R$4,498.04 |
| 23 | R$4,522.09 |
| 24 | R$4,546.28 |
| 24 | R$68,194.15 |
| 25 | R$4,570.59 |
| 26 | R$4,595.04 |
| 27 | R$4,619.61 |
| 28 | R$4,644.32 |
| 29 | R$4,669.16 |
| 30 | R$4,694.13 |
| 31 | R$4,719.23 |
| 32 | R$4,744.47 |
| 33 | R$4,769.85 |
| 34 | R$4,795.36 |
| 35 | R$4,821.00 |
| 36 | R$1,134,571.96 |
| 36 | R$33,341.88 |
Capital gains tax on the sale
- Estimated value at the horizon
- R$1,580,695.44
- Gain (value minus selling cost and total paid in)
- R$46,289.83
- FR2 reduction factor (Law 11.196/2005, art. 40)
- 0.8109
- Taxable base
- R$37,535.56
- Tax from 15% to 22.5% (Law 13.259/2016, art. 21)
- R$5,630.33
Limits of this calculation
REITs use the average total return of the IFIX, with no tax on the sale of the shares and no specific fund; Tesouro is held to the horizon with no mark to market; rent has no increases and is not reinvested; the selling broker fee only if you enter it; appreciation is an assumption (FipeZAP tracks listing prices, not sale prices, and mixes new and resale units); the exemption in art. 39 of Law 11.196/2005 (buying another home within 180 days) is left out.
Simulation using the assumptions above and public data as of the date shown. It is not a promise of return, appreciation or price. Past returns do not guarantee future returns. Taxes, rates and registry fees change by law: confirm with the city hall, the registry office (cartório) and an accountant before deciding.
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How the math works
Off-plan buyers do not pay everything on day one. So the comparison uses the same plan: each property payment (down payment, installments, balloon payments and the handover balance, adjusted by the INCC, plus ITBI and registry fees at handover) is invested on the same date in each alternative. At the horizon month, we compare what is left of the property (sold or only valued) with what is left of each investment.
- Property: final value = list price grown by the annual appreciation you choose. If you sell, the broker fee you enter and capital gains tax (15% to 22.5%, Law 13.259/2016) come out, with the FR2 reduction factor of Law 11.196/2005 for residents. Net rent comes in month by month after handover.
- CDI, Tesouro Selic and Tesouro IPCA+: monthly return and regressive income tax by the term of each payment (22.5% up to 180 days, 15% after 720 days, Law 11.033/2004). Tesouro pays the 0.20% a year custody fee.
- Savings account (poupança): 0.5% a month plus TR while the Selic target is above 8.5% a year, tax free.
- REITs: average total return of the IFIX, which already includes reinvested distributions.
- IRR: the annual rate that equates the payments with each option's final value.
- Break-even appreciation: the annual appreciation that makes the property equal to the CDI.
The default scenario uses the median of the Central Bank of Brazil Focus survey for the Selic rate and IPCA in each year; "today's rates" keeps rates constant.
Where the numbers come from
| Figure | Value | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDI | 13.65% a.a. | Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 12 | 02/10/2026 |
| Selic (overnight) | 13.65% a.a. | Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 1178 | 02/10/2026 |
| Selic target | 13.75% a.a. | Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 432 | 04/10/2026 |
| Focus survey (Selic and IPCA by year) | 2026: 13.50%; 2027: 12.00%; 2028: 10.50%; 2029: 10.00%; 2030: 10.00% | Central Bank of Brazil, Focus | 10/2/2026 |
| 12-month IPCA | 4.22% | IBGE, via Central Bank of Brazil (SGS 13522) | August 2026 |
| 12-month INCC-M | 6.61% | FGV, release of 09/25/2026 | October 2025 to September 2026 |
| 12-month average TR | 0.1653% a.m. | Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 7811 | 01/10/2026 |
| Tesouro IPCA+ 2032 (real rate) | 7.60% a.a. | Brazilian National Treasury, Tesouro Transparente | 10/2/2026 |
| Tesouro custody fee | 0.20% a.a. | Agência Brasil, 12/29/2024 | 2026 |
| IFIX, 5-year total return | 6.70% a.a. | B3 | 9/30/2026 |
| FipeZAP Itapema, 12 months | 4.37% | FIPE, FipeZAP Index | September 2026 |
| FipeZAP Balneário Camboriú, 12 months | 3.38% | FIPE, FipeZAP Index | September 2026 |
| FipeZAP Itajaí, 12 months | 5.25% | FIPE, FipeZAP Index | September 2026 |
| Deed and registration in SC | 2026 table | CGJ-SC, Circular 643/2025 | 12/10/2025 |
| PTAX euro and dollar (sell) | € 1 = R$ 5.5897; US$ 1 = R$ 4.9859 | Central Bank of Brazil, PTAX | 10/5/2026 |
| ITBI Porto Belo | 2.0% | Porto Belo City Council, 03/24/2021 | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Itapema | 1.5% (until 12/31/2026); 2.0% (from 1/1/2027) | Itapema City Council (bill 776/2025, voted on 12/16/2025) and Itapema Finance Department (note of 12/16/2025) | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Bombinhas | 3.0% | Bombinhas City Hall | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Balneário Camboriú | 3.0% | Balneário Camboriú Ordinary Law 5.318/2026, art. 16 | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Camboriú | 3.0% | Camboriú City Hall, 02/26/2025 (Complementary Law 152/2025) | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Itajaí | 2.0% | 1st Notary and Protest Office of Itajaí ('In Itajaí the ITBI rate is 2%') and Municipal Tax Code (Complementary Law 20/2002); can be paid in up to 24 installments | 10/4/2026 |
| ITBI Rio das Ostras | 3.0% | Rio das Ostras City Hall | 10/4/2026 |
Central Bank of Brazil series read on 10/5/2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is off-plan property in Brazil better than fixed income?
It depends on the property's appreciation and on interest rates over the period. With the defaults of 10/04/2026 (12-month FipeZAP and Focus), the R$800,000 example in Itapema ends below the CDI and only breaks even at 8.68% appreciation a year. Replace the numbers with those of the property you are considering.
Why does the comparison use the same payment plan?
Because off-plan buyers pay over time. Comparing the full price invested on day one with the property distorts the result. Here each installment goes to fixed income on the same date it would go to the developer.
Where does the appreciation figure come from?
From the FipeZAP residential sale index for September 2026: Itapema 4.37% over 12 months and Balneário Camboriú 3.38%. Porto Belo and Bombinhas use Itapema as the reference. FipeZAP tracks listing prices, not sale prices.
Can I see the results in euros or dollars?
Yes. The calculator converts totals at the Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate of 2026-10-05. The math stays in reais.